Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 21 2020 | 1617 | 21015 | 47 | 6 | 519 | 640 |
| September 22 2020 | 1650 | 21086 | 49 | 6 | 479 | 650 |
| September 23 2020 | 1703 | 21300 | 49 | 6 | 471 | 666 |
| September 24 2020 | 1734 | 21415 | 50 | 6 | 475 | 674 |
| September 25 2020 | 1776 | 21730 | 48 | 6 | 490 | 678 |
| September 26 2020 | 1840 | 22050 | 51 | 6 | 504 | 669 |
| September 27 2020 | 1887 | 22343 | 55 | 6 | 489 | 655 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.0 | 3.5% | 17 | 0.15% | 23 | 0.2% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 7.1 | 20.2% | 99 | 0.73% | 136 | 1% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 15.7 | 42.7% | 209 | 1% | 295 | 1.41% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 6.1 | 11% | 54 | 0.4% | 65 | 0.48% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.6 | 5.9% | 29 | 0.28% | 41 | 0.39% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 4.4 | 7.6% | 37 | 0.29% | 40 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 3.1 | 5.9% | 29 | 0.25% | 37 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.6 | 2.7% | 13 | 0.12% | 16 | 0.15% |
| All ages | 47 | 43.0 | 100% | 489 | 0.47% | 655 | 0.63% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 21 2020 | 480 | 13887 | 18 | 0 | 77 | 98 |
| September 22 2020 | 482 | 13929 | 18 | 0 | 73 | 97 |
| September 23 2020 | 489 | 14088 | 18 | 0 | 71 | 100 |
| September 24 2020 | 498 | 14231 | 19 | 0 | 78 | 103 |
| September 25 2020 | 517 | 14248 | 19 | 0 | 94 | 114 |
| September 26 2020 | 522 | 14550 | 21 | 0 | 88 | 113 |
| September 27 2020 | 546 | 14662 | 23 | 0 | 99 | 128 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 4% | 4 | 0.05% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.4 | 18.2% | 18 | 0.21% | 22 | 0.26% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 2.3 | 21.2% | 21 | 0.3% | 32 | 0.45% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 1.0 | 10.1% | 10 | 0.12% | 14 | 0.17% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.3 | 13.1% | 13 | 0.17% | 17 | 0.22% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 2.0 | 18.2% | 18 | 0.19% | 22 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 1.1 | 11.1% | 11 | 0.13% | 12 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 2 | 0.4 | 3% | 3 | 0.04% | 3 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 24 | 10.0 | 100% | 99 | 0.15% | 128 | 0.2% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 21 2020 | 420 | 8356 | 20 | 4 | 26 | 28 |
| September 22 2020 | 422 | 8495 | 20 | 4 | 27 | 29 |
| September 23 2020 | 425 | 8564 | 20 | 4 | 29 | 32 |
| September 24 2020 | 437 | 8691 | 21 | 4 | 39 | 43 |
| September 25 2020 | 444 | 8818 | 21 | 4 | 43 | 50 |
| September 26 2020 | 456 | 8947 | 21 | 4 | 53 | 61 |
| September 27 2020 | 466 | 8957 | 21 | 4 | 61 | 70 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 21 2020 | 2622 | 23848 | 41 | 2 | 1099 | 1285 |
| September 22 2020 | 2698 | 24155 | 43 | 2 | 1073 | 1347 |
| September 23 2020 | 2785 | 24410 | 44 | 2 | 1031 | 1415 |
| September 24 2020 | 2838 | 24651 | 44 | 2 | 1039 | 1393 |
| September 25 2020 | 2946 | 24857 | 45 | 2 | 1057 | 1423 |
| September 26 2020 | 2990 | 24931 | 46 | 2 | 979 | 1365 |
| September 27 2020 | 3047 | 25107 | 46 | 2 | 926 | 1293 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.4% | 4 | 0.03% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 19.3 | 31.6% | 293 | 1.77% | 446 | 2.69% |
| 20-29 | 19 | 28.0 | 45.9% | 425 | 2% | 593 | 2.79% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 5.7 | 5.4% | 50 | 0.37% | 61 | 0.45% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 3.4 | 4.2% | 39 | 0.29% | 52 | 0.38% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4.3 | 4.3% | 40 | 0.28% | 45 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.1 | 3.5% | 32 | 0.23% | 39 | 0.27% |
| 70+ | 7 | 4.0 | 4.6% | 43 | 0.33% | 51 | 0.39% |
| All ages | 57 | 68.4 | 100% | 926 | 0.78% | 1293 | 1.09% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 21 2020 | 8895 | 187412 | 352 | 41 | 1641 | 2687 |
| September 22 2020 | 8947 | 190377 | 353 | 41 | 1558 | 2520 |
| September 23 2020 | 9040 | 191786 | 354 | 41 | 1418 | 2551 |
| September 24 2020 | 9203 | 192910 | 357 | 41 | 1357 | 2232 |
| September 25 2020 | 9345 | 194393 | 363 | 41 | 1449 | 2091 |
| September 26 2020 | 9488 | 195129 | 364 | 41 | 1504 | 2099 |
| September 27 2020 | 9607 | 195692 | 366 | 41 | 1365 | 1985 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.0 | 3.2% | 43 | 0.07% | 53 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 26 | 30.0 | 29.4% | 401 | 0.56% | 697 | 0.98% |
| 20-29 | 36 | 33.6 | 32.5% | 444 | 0.43% | 648 | 0.62% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 16.1 | 11.8% | 161 | 0.21% | 197 | 0.26% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 12.0 | 9.9% | 135 | 0.21% | 169 | 0.26% |
| 50-59 | 18 | 10.0 | 7.5% | 102 | 0.16% | 128 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 5.1 | 3.9% | 53 | 0.1% | 60 | 0.11% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.3 | 1.9% | 26 | 0.05% | 33 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 119 | 113.1 | 100% | 1365 | 0.25% | 1985 | 0.36% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 21 2020 | 102498 | 1337627 | 6692 | 1244 | 16248 | 20738 |
| September 22 2020 | 104170 | 1348492 | 6765 | 1251 | 16567 | 21693 |
| September 23 2020 | 105932 | 1360183 | 6821 | 1259 | 16747 | 22598 |
| September 24 2020 | 108324 | 1371070 | 6897 | 1265 | 18368 | 23443 |
| September 25 2020 | 110828 | 1383645 | 6962 | 1274 | 19524 | 24578 |
| September 26 2020 | 113645 | 1393412 | 7041 | 1281 | 20933 | 26042 |
| September 27 2020 | 115862 | 1399218 | 7095 | 1281 | 21116 | 26677 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 76 | 71.6 | 3.3% | 693 | 0.11% | 814 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 255 | 292.0 | 15.8% | 3336 | 0.44% | 4545 | 0.6% |
| 20-29 | 505 | 480.4 | 24.8% | 5233 | 0.69% | 6806 | 0.9% |
| 30-39 | 345 | 299.7 | 13.5% | 2859 | 0.38% | 3500 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 295 | 270.1 | 12.4% | 2616 | 0.37% | 3190 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 327 | 310.6 | 13.8% | 2924 | 0.36% | 3580 | 0.44% |
| 60-69 | 238 | 209.4 | 9.4% | 1978 | 0.26% | 2385 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 176 | 156.9 | 7% | 1477 | 0.23% | 1857 | 0.29% |
| All ages | 2217 | 2090.7 | 100% | 21116 | 0.36% | 26677 | 0.46% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62.6 | 100 | 141 | 43 | 42.7 | 18.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.8 | 10 | 6.4 | 7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 7.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109.4 | 269.5 | 278.6 | 68.4 | 91.6 | 26.5% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36.3 | 98.1 | 62.4 | 113.1 | 213.6 | 7.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.8 | 60 | 89.9 | 2090.7 | 1339.7 | 17.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 21.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-18 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1432"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges